Dow futures surge 300 points ahead of CPI data: 5 things to know before market opens

US stock futures pointed higher on Friday as investors positioned for the August CPI report, the final major inflation test before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Dow futures rose about 300 points or 0.5%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts gained roughly 0.5% and 0.6%, after four straight losing sessions.

Oil offered some relief, with Brent retreating from an overnight peak near $110, although it remained above $106.

The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.95%, leaving equities highly sensitive to the inflation print.

5 things to know before Wall Street opens

1. CPI can still swing next week’s Fed decision

The August CPI report lands at 8:30 am ET. Forecasts cluster around 3.3%-3.4% annual headline inflation, while core inflation is expected near 2.4%.

Markets are assigning roughly a two-thirds probability to a quarter-point Fed increase next week.

Analysts noted that a firm headline reading driven by energy could strengthen the case for an immediate hike. A softer core number would instead give equities and Treasuries room for a relief rally.

2. The 10-year yield is still flirting with 5%

The 10-year Treasury yield traded around 4.95% after touching 4.979% overnight, keeping the 5% threshold firmly in view.

That matters because higher risk-free yields make expensive equities less attractive and raise financing costs across mortgages, autos and corporate borrowing.

As per market data, the 30-year yield has climbed to levels not seen since 2007. A hot CPI print could therefore hit valuation-sensitive growth stocks hardest.

3. Oil has pulled back, but the inflation shock remains

Brent eased to around $106 after briefly approaching $110, while WTI slipped towards $101. Even after Friday’s retreat, Brent is still on course for a double-digit weekly gain.

ING analysts said oil is reflecting a reassessment of how long the Middle East conflict could last and how severe the supply threat may become.

US diesel prices have also reached a record $6.06 a gallon, keeping transport and production costs under pressure.

4. Oracle gives AI bulls something tangible

Oracle shares jumped about 7% before the bell after quarterly revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion and cloud-infrastructure revenue more than doubled.

The company added more than $30 billion of AI cloud contracts, lifting remaining performance obligations to $664 billion.

JPMorgan said that the quarter eased concerns about data-centre delays and whether signed AI contracts would convert into revenue.

The catch is spending, as Oracle’s capital requirements remain enormous, so investors will still watch free cash flow closely.

5. Adobe shows that beating earnings is no longer enough

Adobe fell about 2%-3% premarket despite reporting record quarterly revenue of $6.76 billion and adjusted earnings of $6.13 a share.

AI-first annual recurring revenue grew more than 150% year on year, but investors focused on slower near-term growth and the company’s shift towards a freemium model.

Citi analysts kept a Neutral stance and said investors still need greater strategic clarity as Adobe navigates AI competition and a leadership transition.

The reaction reinforces a broader software-market rule: strong AI adoption now needs to show up in faster forward growth.

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